Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Mid-Autumn Festival prices expected to firm and continue to grow, giving estimated premium
The colony price of Pfeiffer has stood at 2,000 yuan, and the demand for high-end liquor has changed.According to grassroots survey data, the Maotai colonial price has recently stabilized at 2,000 yuan, and the terminal price has reached about 2,400 yuan.Moutai approvals continue to strengthen, mainly due to Moutai supply and demand.Since the recovery of liquor for 15 years, the consumer group of liquor is changing. From the previous San Gong consumption, it has shifted to government consumption, and now it is dominated by daily consumption. The optional attributes of liquor have gradually decreased, which also provides demand for high-end liquor.Expected strength.The scarcity of Maotai has also caused its prices to continue to strengthen.In the meantime, the rise in Maotai’s approval price also opened up space for high-end liquors such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao. In the second quarter of the off-season, wine companies raised prices through volume control to rationalize prices and channels. The industry as a whole showed an upward trend.We also continue to be optimistic about the high-end liquor market. Against this background, the terminal price of Moutai will also be supported by demand, and the price of Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to be firm. The company locked its performance ahead of schedule in the second quarter and accelerated its launch at the end of the quarter to ensure that the stated goals were achieved.At the product investment conference on June 12, the company stated that it would accelerate the launch of Moutai in the middle and late June, and put 2,000 tons of Moutai into focus in 20 days.We believe that the speed of Moutai’s launch was slower in the first quarter, or related to the speed of 6,000 tons of re-delivery by dealers. The replacement was related to the continuous strengthening of Moutai’s market price, and the accelerated launch was conducive to the stabilization of terminal prices.Follow the company in the second half of the year.According to the calculation of the monthly delivery volume, the company’s total delivery volume in the first half of the year was 1.Around 4 or so, it grows slightly every year.The improvement in the first half of the year is mainly driven by the product structure. It is expected that the company’s single-quarter revenue will increase by 13%, net profit will increase by 30%, and semi-annual performance revenue will increase by 30%.06%, net profit increased by 30 per year.27%.In addition, the company launched the dealer’s second-half payment plan in late June. At present, the dealer’s payment has been fully completed. This part will be reflected in the company’s interim report of advance receipts, when the company’s performance will be locked in advance. Increase the proportion of direct sales, increase non-standard launches, and channel reforms to promote rapid performance improvement.Company leaders have been committed to channel reform.Channel reform is conducive to further optimizing marketing channels, cleaning up small profits or replacing dealers to protect prices, expanding and increasing direct sales ratios, and helping to increase the price of wine per ton.The sales volume recovered is used in two parts: one part is used to increase the proportion of direct sales channels.Following the slashing of about 437 Feitian liquor dealers in 2018, in the first quarter, the company replaced 39 ordinary Feitian Maotai dealers, replacing about 700 tons to expand the proportion of direct sales channels.It is expected that the dealer system will be reduced by 10% in 19 years due to policy shocks, and the proportion of direct sales will be tripled to about 20%.94%), leading to an increase in revenue of about 100 million (1499 yuan for direct sales channels, higher than the 969 yuan ex-factory price); the other part is used to put non-standard products to improve the product structure.The company plans to issue 3 in 19 years.1 Initially, at least slightly increased by 10.7%.Which dealer system1.7 nominally, mainly ordinary flying Moutai; the remaining 1.4 For ordinary flying Moutai and non-standard Moutai (Zodiac, year, boutique) respectively.The amount of the Spring Festival in 2019 is slightly higher than last year. The actual actual amount may exceed the planned amount.The upgrading of the product structure and sales structure jointly improved the company’s profitability, promoted rapid growth in performance, and exceeded market expectations.In terms of volume and price, the incremental contribution in 2019 will be 10% -13%, and the increase in price contribution will be 3% -5%. We believe that the probability of Moutai in 19 years will exceed the expected performance of 14% -16%.We are optimistic about the company’s channel reform strategy and 成都桑拿网 product structure upgrade strategy, and will pay attention to the implementation of channel reform decisions. Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 910 in 2019-2021.34/1181.80/1477.25 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.92% / 29.82% / 25.00%, net profit attributable to mother 440.66/596.05/767.61 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.18% / 35.26% / 28.78%, corresponding to 35.08/47.45/61.11 yuan.Based on the 2020 EPS calculation, the company is given a 30-fold valuation, and the target price is raised to 1,424 yuan, with a space of more than 40%, and the company’s “strongly recommended” investment rating is maintained. Risk reminders: food safety risks, macroeconomic downside risks, and direct management advancement is less than expected.