China Animal Husbandry (600195): Products become more abundant
Event: The company announced a new veterinary drug certificate for foot-and-mouth disease type O, type A, and Asia type I trivalent inactivated vaccines, which are permitted to export and are eligible for foot-and-mouth disease type O, type A bivalent 3B protein epitopes.
With rich products, the vaccine business is promising.
The two vaccine products supplemented by the company this time include foot-and-mouth disease products.
One of them is the O, A, and I trivalent inactivated vaccine for foot-and-mouth disease. Since 2018, the vaccine has been adjusted for the prevention and control of Asian-type I-foot-and-mouth disease since 2018.
The first time to obtain the qualification to resume production is to export overseas markets and promote the “Belt and Road” national strategy.
Take Pakistan as an example, the annual demand for foot-and-mouth disease vaccine is 40 million copies per year?
With 50 million servings, we believe that it is expected to drive the company’s foot-and-mouth disease vaccine business growth in the future and increase the company’s profit point.
The second section is the second pig, bovine O, and two-valent foot-and-mouth disease vaccine obtained by the company following Zhongpu Bio.
This product can distinguish natural infection and vaccine immunization in actual operation, provide product conditions for purification work in specific disease-free areas, meet the goal of national purification farms, and provide strong support for the growth of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine business.
The centralization trend of long-term breeding leading enterprises remains unchanged.
The data on live pigs and fertile sows in the first half of 2019 has been slowly affected by African swine fever.
However, from the data of the domestic sowing factory’s binary sow supplement, it is expected that there will be a clear upward trend since March, and the absolute amount of supplement will be almost the same as in the first half of 2018.
Higher pig prices are expected to occur in the second half of the year, which will increase the intent of farmers to fill the pens, which will increase the demand for vaccines.
In addition, in the context of the continuous invasion of African swine plague, we believe that in the long run, domestic leading breeding companies will benefit, and the trend of increasing the concentration of large-scale farms may continue.
We believe that the breeding volume and penetration rate will increase rapidly in the next two years. The company’s customer model scale plants account for a high proportion and profitability is expected to continue to increase.
With more blossoms, the chemical feed business will help in the future.
At present, the country’s research on African swine fever vaccine is advancing steadily, and the confidence of farmers has improved. The company’s biopharmaceutical sector is expected to bring confidence to the marginal improvement in the second half of the year.
More than 90% of the company’s feed business is poultry feed, which is expected 厦门夜网 to benefit from the post-pull cycle and maintain high growth in the next two years; Shengli Bio, a subsidiary of the chemical business company, has recently passed the on-site audit of the US FDA agency and is expected to achieve the chemical business in the future.Exporting to the United States may greatly boost the company’s export business profits.
Earnings forecasts and investment advice.
It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
51 yuan, 0.
62 yuan, 0.
71 yuan, corresponding to dynamic PE is 32, 27, 24 times, maintaining the “buy” level.
Risk warning: market competition or intensification, the company’s product sales may be less than expected, raw material prices or fluctuations, and vaccine development progress may be less than expected.