Ling mustard (002507): Fuling rises due to reasonable stock recovery and limited impact of the epidemic
Event: The acquisition of Qingcaotou in Fuling District started in 2020, and the marginal improvement brought about by the destocking of the channel has already appeared. At the same time, we judge that the epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection may have limited impact on the company.
佛山桑拿网 Investment Ratings and Estimates: Maintain 2019-19 Revenue Forecast19.
0 billion, an increase of 3 each year.
0%, maintaining the forecast of net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-216.
3.2 billion, an increase of 0 each year.
6%, the corresponding EPS is 0.
05 yuan, the latest closing price corresponding to 2019-21 PE is 29, 26, 23x.
Since 2019, the company has been focusing on channel development and adjustment, and the effect of destocking has begun to show. This year, it will be lightly loaded and returned to growth.
We judge that the short-term epidemic situation has limited impact on the company’s production and operation. In the long term, the company, as a leader in industry segmentation, has outstanding brand and channel advantages and a clear share advantage.
The green cabbage acquisition season started, and the cost was flat compared with the previous year.
According to the website of the People’s Government of Fuling District, on January 29, 2020, some mustard production enterprises and mustard joint stock cooperatives, mainly mustard group companies, acquired scales in nine township streets.
In 2020, the total output of cabbage heads planned for the whole region is 160 mm, and the bifurcation guidance price is: not less than 0 before February 19 (that is, the rain festival).
8 yuan / kg, not less than 0 before the end of February.
7 yuan / kg.
The total output of cabbage heads and guidance prices are flat compared to 2019, and the company’s raw material costs are expected to be overall controllable this year.
Channel development is methodical, and inventory has recovered to a reasonable level.
In order to compete for high-quality channel resources, the company launched a “flooding flood” operation in 2018, but the situation of high channel inventory also appeared in early 2019.
The company sets 2019 as the year of channel adjustment, while taking into account the sinking of the channel.
The company adopted a channel fission strategy, which changed its approach from a previous dealer to a company merger. The country office increased from 33 to 67. In the development of blank markets, some dealers were granted certain credit lines. The assessment indicators were more flexible and improved.Sales team motivation.
At present, the effect of channel construction has started to be significant. We judge that the overall channel inventory has replaced a reasonable level for one month, and the supply in some areas is tight during the Spring Festival.
It is expected that the company will enter the field lightly in 2020, ushering in a resumed growth.
The epidemic situation does not change downstream demand, and the overall impact is minimal.
On the demand side, the company ‘s products suffered very limited epidemic impacts. The main reason is that mustard mustard is a condiment attribute for family meals. The product is convenient, fast, and easy to store, and it is hardly affected by the catering industry and the reduction of people’s travel.
In terms of production and supply, it is expected that it will be systematically affected by 杭州桑拿网 the delayed resumption of work and the delay in logistics and distribution due to the epidemic situation, but because it is a staged one, it will have little impact on it.
Catalysts for long-term growth: higher-than-expected revenue growth, core assumptions about product price increases: channel expansion progress is gradually expected, and revenue performance exceeds expectations leading to higher expense ratios